Cumulative Risk of Recurrent Stroke Increases to at Least 10 Years After Index Event

Background: The long-term risk of stroke after a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or a minor stroke, defined as a National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score Objective: To determine the annual and cumulative incidence of stroke up to 10 years after a TIA or minor stroke. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science from inception to June 2024 for prospective or retrospective cohort studies reporting stroke risk with a minimum follow-up of 1 year in patients with TIA or minor stroke. The main outcome was any stroke. Results: The analysis included 171,068 patients (57% males). The pooled rate of stroke per 100 person-years was 5.94 events in the first year, 1.8 events annually in the second through fifth years, and 1.72 events in the sixth through tenth years. The 5- and 10-year cumulative incidence of stroke was 12.5% and 19.8%, respectively. About 62% of all strokes that occurred in the first year happened within t more...